The method behind Heat.
Heat measures how unusual a stock’s trading volume is against its own normal. It measures attention. It does not predict direction.
A score from 0 to 100.
raw = 0.3 × log₂(ratio today) + 0.7 × log₂(average ratio of last 5 days)
The five-day average has more weight. Sustained attention matters more than a single noisy session.
| Raw score | Heat |
|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 0 |
| 0 to 1 | 40 × raw |
| 1 to 2 | 40 + 30 × (raw − 1) |
| 2 to 3 | 70 + 25 × (raw − 2) |
| Above 3 | min(100, 95 + 5 × (raw − 3)) |
The heat bands.
| 0–19 | Cold |
| 20–39 | Warm |
| 40–59 | Active |
| 60–79 | Hot |
| 80–100 | Very hot |
Patterns, not predictions.
| Pattern | Context |
|---|---|
| New spike | A sudden increase in attention. |
| Building | Attention rising across several sessions. |
| Quiet build | An early, quieter rise in activity. |
| Building into weakness | Volume building while price is weak. |
| Momentum | Activity alongside recent price strength. |
Pattern labels are supplied by the snapshot. Their detection thresholds are not specified in this beta. Thin trading and no-trade days are shown separately. Only eligible, non-stale names are ranked, by Heat then today’s volume ratio.
What was tested and rejected.
The Heat calculation is tested at 1×, 2×, 4× and 8× normal volume and capped at 100. No real-market backtest results have been ingested. There are no validated or rejected predictive strategies to report yet. Sample base rates are fictional demonstrations only.
Price display licensing.
Prices are shown only where a display licence allows. Heat, volume ratios, pattern tags and historical base rates remain available without price displays.
Limits worth knowing.
Volume can follow news, promotion, liquidity changes, or trading noise. Price may go up or down. A small baseline can magnify ratios. Historical rates are not forecasts. Prices, sources and snapshot dates can be stale. Heat is not a recommendation.
The median comparison uses the prior 60 trading days, excluding today. Steady 2× volume scores 40, steady 4× scores 70, and steady 8× scores 95.